Arm Talent, Winning, and the Justin Herbert Paradox

The Charger QB is a gifted thrower but that hasn’t translated into meaningful wins. Are we giving him a pass because of his highlight worthy plays in lieu of winning plays that he has not consistently made?

Before the NFL season kicked off this year, the publication PFF ranked all 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL. Justin Herbert, the Chargers franchise QB, was ranked fourth behind Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Joe Burrow. This ranking placed him above players like Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and Trevor Lawrence. The article projected that new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore could “unlock” Herbert’s potential into the transcendent player that everyone is confident that he will become.

After 6 games, the Chargers are sitting at 2–4 and currently in line for a top 10 pick in next year’s draft alongside teams like the Tennessee Titans and New Orleans Saints that may be looking towards the future. Many fans have suggested that coaching is the problem with the Chargers, deflecting blame from Herbert for now. And yet despite this, we are attaching his teams 27–29 win-loss record with him as a starter to the overall conversation about him. It brings up a conversation about measuring QBs on team records and how a player like Herbert will continue to get the benefit of the doubt because of his arm talent.